While working to increase ridership currently averaging on weekdays about 40% of pre-COVID figures

By Bay Area Rapid Transit District

As BART strives to increase ridership, which is averaging about 40% of weekday pre-COVID figures, BART fares will increase January 1, 2025, to keep pace with inflation so that the agency is able to pay for continued operations and to work toward restoring financial stability. BART’s current funding model relies on passenger fares to pay for operations. 

Fares will increase 5.5 percent on New Year’s Day. The increase is tied to the rate of inflation minus a half-percentage point. It’s the second such increase – the first took effect January 1, 2024.

The average fare will increase 25 cents, from $4.47 to $4.72. BART’s fare calculator and Trip Planner have been updated with the new fares for trips with the date 1/1/25 and beyond. Riders can learn how the increase will affect their travels by entering a 2025 date for their trip.

“We understand that price increases are never welcome, but BART fares remain a vital source of funds even with ridership lower than they were before the pandemic,” said BART Board Vice President Mark Foley. “My Board colleagues and I voted in June 2023 to spread necessary fare increases over two years rather than catching up all at once. At the same time, we voted to increase the Clipper START means-based discount from 20 percent to 50 percent to help those most in need.”

The fare increase is expected to raise about $14 million per year for operations. Combined with the previous year’s fare adjustment, BART will use this $30 million per year to fund train service, enhanced cleaning, additional police and unarmed safety staff presence, and capital projects such as the Next Generation Fare Gates project. 

Discounts available for those who are eligible

The regional Clipper START program is an important resource for low-income riders of BART and other Bay Area transit systems. The program is for adult riders with a household income of 200% of the federal poverty level or less. Administered by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, program participants receive a personalized Clipper card that cuts half the cost of fares on more than 20 transit systems.

• Limited income riders get 50% off with Clipper START.
• Youth 5-18 years old get 50% off with a Youth Clipper card. 
• Seniors 65 and over get 62.5% off with a Senior Clipper card. 
• The RTC Clipper card is a version of Clipper created for passengers under 65 with qualifying disabilities to provide 62.5% off.  

Regular, predictable increases a long-term strategy 

January’s fare increase is the latest adjustment in a strategy to provide BART funding while providing riders predictable, scaled changes to the costs of riding. In 2004, BART first implemented this inflation-based fare increase program that calls for small, regular, less-than-inflation increases every two years, allowing fares to keep up with the cost of providing reliable and safe service. 

BART is also much less expensive than driving on a cost per mile basis. The Internal Revenue Service standard mileage rate for driver is 67 cents per mile; BART riders pay an average of 27 cents per mile, 60% less than the cost of driving.

Outdated funding model

BART’s current funding model relies on passenger fares to pay for operations. Even with the fare increase, BART is facing a $35 million operating deficit in FY26 and $385 million in FY27. Since BART’s outdated model of relying on passenger fares to pay most operating costs is no longer feasible because of remote work, the agency must modernize its funding sources to better match other transit systems throughout the country that receive larger amounts of public funding. BART needs a more reliable long-term source of operating funding and continues to advocate at the federal, state, and regional levels for the permanent funding needed to sustainably provide the quality transit service the Bay Area needs.  

Addressing BART’s ongoing financial crisis will take a variety of solutions including securing new revenue and continuing to find internal cost savings. BART costs have grown at a rate lower than inflation, showing we have held the line on spending. We have implemented a service schedule that better matches ridership, and we are running shorter trains, reducing traction power consumption and maintenance costs.

Allen D. Payton contributed to this report.

By Marc Joffe

As if the $1 toll hike on January 1, 2025, is not enough, commissioners at the Bay Area Toll Authority (BATA) plan to approve a series of five fifty cent increases starting in 2026. By 2030, tolls on the Bay Area’s seven state-owned bridges will reach $10.50 for FasTrak users and $11.50 for drivers paying by invoice. Included in the increase are these four bridges with landings in Contra Costa County:

• Antioch (Senator John A. Nejedly) Bridge
• Benicia-Martinez (George Miller) Bridge
• Carquinez Bridge
• Richmond-San Rafael Bridge

Aside from toll hikes, motorists are facing a gasoline price increase arising from the California Air Resources Board’s recent imposition of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. According to a research center at the University of Pennsylvania, LCFS could cost drivers up to 85 cents extra per gallon. And this is on top of California’s highly elevated fuel prices, driven by taxes that rise annually under SB1 (2018).

Despite increasing maintenance costs, the Bay Area bridges are quite profitable. BATA expects total revenue of $1.058 billion this year. The costs of operating the bridges, running FasTrak, and paying debt service are projected to total just $757 million, leaving $300 million to spare.

As BATA admits in its own FAQ on the toll increase, $3.00 of the current $7.00 toll is already being siphoned off for purposes other than bridge operations, maintenance, and seismic safety (this will increase to $4.00 of $8.00 on January 1). For example, almost $6 million is diverted annually to the Transbay Joint Powers Authority to operate its empty bus terminal and to pursue its hopeless plan to bring high-speed rail trains into the Salesforce Transit Center. Bridge toll money is also being used to subsidize Bay Area ferries, SF Muni, AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit, and the NAPA Vine bus service.

The toll hike on the Antioch Bridge is especially egregious. BATA is charging the same tolls on all its bridges despite their vastly different lengths. The Bay Bridge is 8.4 miles long while the Antioch Bridge is just 1.8 miles long. Also, unlike all other Bay Area bridges, the Antioch Bridge has just one lane in each direction.

And then there is the question of income. While many Bay Area drivers are wealthy enough to easily absorb the toll hike, that is less true of people living near the Antioch Bridge. According to Census Reporter, Antioch’s per capita income is only 56 percent of the average for the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro region. Rio Vista, the first sizable community on the north side of the bridge, clocks in at just 67 percent of the metro area’s income per person.

At minimum, BATA should exempt the Antioch Bridge from its planned toll hikes. But better yet, the Authority should shelve its entire toll increase plan, stop siphoning off toll money for other purposes, and live within its means.

Marc Joffe is President of the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association.

Until Dec. 18

Board considering increasing to as high as $11.50 to pay “exclusively for bridge preservation and operations” in spite of three voter-approved $1 increases

“A Thanksgiving/holiday season decision is a hide the ball strategy. Not good.” – State Senator Steve Glazer

By John Goodwin & Rebecca Long, MTC

November 20, 2024 update: The public comment period on the Bay Area Toll Authority’s proposed toll increase and HOV policy changes is extended through the end of public comment heard on the agenda item for BATA’s December 18, 2024 meeting.  All public written and oral comments provided through that time will be incorporated into the record. However, in order for comments to be summarized and published in the agenda packet and distributed in advance of consideration of this item at the December 11, 2024, BATA Oversight Committee meeting, they must be submitted by 5 p.m. December 3, 2024. 

BATA — which is required by state law to fund projects to preserve and protect the Bay Area’s seven state-owned toll bridges — today heard again a proposal for a toll increase that would be used only to pay for the maintenance, rehabilitation and operation of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and the Antioch, Benicia-Martinez, Carquinez, Dumbarton, Richmond-San Rafael and San Mateo-Hayward bridges. If approved by BATA at its December 18 meeting, the toll increase would be phased in over five years, beginning Jan. 1, 2026. 

The toll increase proposal includes a tiered rate structure aimed at encouraging more customers to pay electronically with FasTrak® toll tags, as this form of payment carries lower administrative costs than payment through a license plate account or returning payment with an invoice received by mail. Under the proposal, customers would pay a premium for using a pre-registered license plate account or for invoiced tolling. To give customers ample time to sign up for FasTrak, this premium would not begin until 2027. 

The proposed toll hike is separate from the $3 increase approved by Bay Area voters in 2018 through Regional Measure 3 to finance a comprehensive suite of highway and transit improvements around the region. The first of the three $1 Regional Measure 3 toll increases went into effect in 2019, followed by another in 2022. The last of the RM 3 toll hikes will go into effect Jan. 1, 2025, bringing the toll for regular two-axle cars and trucks to $8.

The proposal heard today by BATA calls for tolls for all regular two-axle cars and trucks to increase to $8.50 on Jan. 1, 2026. Tolls for customers who pay with FasTrak tags would then rise to $9 in 2027; to $9.50 in 2028; to $10 in 2029; and then to $10.50 in 2030. Tolls for customers who use a pre-registered license plate account would rise to $9.25 in 2027; to $9.75 in 2028; to $10.25 in 2029 and to $10.75 in 2030. Invoiced tolls would rise to $10 in 2027; $10.50 in 2028; $11 in 2029; and $11.50 in 2030. The Golden Gate Bridge has used a tiered pricing schedule since 2014. Golden Gate Bridge tolls by July 2028 will range from $11.25 for FasTrak to $11.50 for license plate accounts to $12.25 for invoice customers.

Under the proposed toll increase, tolls for large freight trucks and other vehicle/trailer combinations with three or more axles would rise by 50 cents per axle each year from 2026 through 2030. 

“I’m sensitive to the overall cost of living in the Bay Area,” acknowledged Napa County Supervisor Alfredo Pedroza, who also serves as chair of both BATA and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). “Working families really feel the impact, not just in transportation but back at home with utilities, groceries, children. This one is hard. But it’s the right thing to do.”

BATA and MTC invite members of the public to weigh in on the proposed toll increase during a comment period that begins Monday, Nov.4, and continues through the end of BATA’s Dec. 18 meeting. Comments may be sent via email to info@bayareametro.gov. As part of its regular November meeting, BATA today held a public hearing in San Francisco to receive testimony about the proposal from Bay Area residents, businesses and other interested parties. 

Today’s presentation by BATA and MTC staff also proposed updates to the policies for high-occupancy vehicles on approaches to the Bay Area’s state-owned toll bridges. These updates would take effect Jan. 1, 2026, concurrent with the proposed toll increase. BATA’s  existing toll schedule allows vehicles with three or more occupants (HOV 3+) a discounted toll, with a two-person (HOV 2) occupancy requirement for half-price tolls at the Dumbarton and San Mateo-Hayward bridges. BATA and MTC staff propose to establish a uniform three-person occupancy requirement for half-price tolls during weekday commute periods at all seven bridges. Carpool vehicles at all state-owned bridges must use a dedicated carpool lane and pay their tolls with a FasTrak Flex toll tag set to the ‘3’ position to receive the 50 percent discount available weekdays from 5 a.m. to 10 a.m. and from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m.

The proposed carpool policy changes also would allow vehicles with two occupants and a switchable FasTrak Flex toll tag set to the ‘2’ position to use the carpool lanes on the approaches to the Antioch, Benicia-Martinez, Carquinez, Dumbarton, Richmond-San Rafael and San Mateo-Hayward bridges. These two-occupant vehicles would not receive the 50 percent carpool discount but would be able to use the carpool lanes to save time traveling through the toll plazas. Use of the carpool lanes on approaches to the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge still would require a minimum of three occupants.

The new carpool policy proposals are designed to improve safety on the toll bridge approaches by minimizing ‘weaving’ between lanes and to increase person-throughput by prioritizing access for buses and carpools. The policy change also would optimize lane configurations as now-obsolete toll booths are removed as part of the coming transition to open-road tolling.  

BATA, which is directed by the same policy board as MTC, administers toll revenues from the Bay Area’s seven state-owned toll bridges. Toll revenues from the Golden Gate Bridge are administered by the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District, which joined with BATA to operate a single regional FasTrak customer service center in San Francisco. MTC is the transportation planning, financing and coordinating agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.

In response to a post of the link to this press release on X/Twitter on Wednesday, Nov. 30, State Senator Steve Glazer, who represents most of Contra Costa County, protested the proposed toll hikes writing, “Why was this need not identified and incorporated during the last toll increase in 2018? You don’t buy a boat and a new car when you don’t have the $ to fix the roof! A Thanksgiving/holiday season decision is a hide the ball strategy. Not good.”

Allen D. Payton contributed to this report.

Has history of arrests dating back to 2014, twice for shoplifting less than $950; already out of custody

By Benicia Police Department

During the late night hours on Sunday, Nov. 3rd, officers made contact with a driver for multiple vehicle code violations in the 1900 Block of E. 2nd Street.  During the initial conversation officers noticed a meth pipe visible in the vehicle.  Upon further search, the suspect, 48-year-old male out of Antioch, Gabriel Ryan Henry was found to be in possession of methamphetamine. 

Also found were Norco pill (without prescription), burglary tools, multiple plastic bottles smelling of gasoline, a collection of flexible hoses, bolt cutters, and approximately $500 of stolen groceries from the Benicia Safeway.  The suspect’s car was impounded, and he was arrested and booked into County Jail without incident. 

The five-foot, nine-inch tall, 230-pound Hispanic suspect was charged with the following crimes:

11377(A) HS: Possess controlled substance (M)
11350(A) HS: Possess narcotic controlled substance (M)
11364(A) HS: Possess unlawful paraphernalia (M)
4060 BP: Possess controlled substances without a prescription (M)
466 PC: Possess/etc burglary tools (M)
459.5(A) PC: Shoplifting (M)

Case #24-1642

According to localcrimenews.com, Henry’s bail was set at $7,500 and has a history of arrests by dating back to 2014 by multiple agencies including Concord PD, Walnut Creek PD, Clayton PD, Dublin PD and the Contra Costa Sheriff’s Office. He was charged with a variety of crimes including petty theft, drug possession, receiving or concealing stolen property and shoplifting.

According to the Solano County Sheriff’s Office, Henry was released early Monday morning, Nov. 4th.

In Sunnyvale

WASHINGTON, D.C. — On Friday, Nov. 2, 2024, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) issued the following statement after the Department of Commerce announced that the CHIPS for America Design and Collaboration Facility (DCF), the official headquarters of the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC), will be established in California. Earlier this year, Padilla led the entire California Democratic delegation in urging Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to establish the NSTC headquarters in California.

The DCF in Sunnyvale, California, will be a colocation of the NSTC headquarters and the flagship design hub from where all NSTC R&D work will be coordinated. The headquarters will serve as a site to host NSTC member and semiconductor ecosystem convenings, NSTC programmatic activities, the Workforce Center of Excellence, the future investment fund, and more. The national design facility will include the NSTC Design Enablement Gateway and an institution for design research focused on chip design, electronic design automation, hardware security, and chip system architecture.

“California is the clear choice to lead NSTC’s semiconductor innovation and R&D. Our state has built a world-class innovation economy and has been at the forefront of the semiconductor industry for decades. We are uniquely positioned to leverage our R&D, manufacturing capacity, and end-users to drive this industry forward.

“Establishing the NSTC headquarters in California will capitalize on our state’s unparalleled assets to grow a highly skilled workforce and develop next-generation advancements. I am confident that this CHIPS Act funding will propel emerging technologies and protect America’s global semiconductor leadership, all while bringing good-paying jobs to our state.”

Santa Clara County alone holds 20 percent of all semiconductor utility patents granted in the last decade, and California is home to more semiconductor R&D, design, intellectual property (IP), and electronic design automation (EDA) firms than Texas, New York, and Oregon combined – with over 175 companies operating out of Silicon Valley. The design facility is one of three planned major NSTC centers. The Department of Commerce recently announced the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Accelerator in New York, and said a Prototyping and NAPMP Advanced Packaging Piloting Facility is still forthcoming.

In April, Padilla, Senator Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Representative Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.-18), and Representative Doris Matsui (D-Calif.-07) led the entire California Democratic delegation in urging Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to establish the NSTC headquarters in California. The letter came after Padilla and Governor Gavin Newsom issued a statement rebuking the CHIPS Program Office’s (CPO) cancellation of the third CHIPS Act Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) for advanced commercial research and development facilities in the United States.

In 2022, Senator Padilla and Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) sent a letter urging Senate leadership to support provisions in the final version of the United States Innovation and Competition Act that would require semiconductor companies receiving federal assistance for research, design, and manufacturing to invest in a more diverse workforce and improve procurement from minority-, veteran-, and women-owned businesses. Padilla and Warnock applauded the passage of one of these provisions through the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act later that year.

To view the release online, click here.

Making Transit Work for the Region — Now and In The Future

September is Transit Month

Join MTC and SPUR online and attend a webinar to learn about progress on two regional initiatives — Transit 2050+ and Transit Priority Improvements.

Tuesday, September 3, 2024 – 12 p.m. to 1:30 p.m.

Transit 2050+ is the region’s first connected network plan for Bay Area Transit and is also a key component of Plan Bay Area, the region’s sustainable community strategy and regional transportation plan. Unlike prior versions of the Regional Transportation Plan, Transit 2050+ focuses on the overall transit network of the Bay Area and prioritizes near term improvements to transit service, speed and reliability.

MTC is working with transit agencies and with Caltrans, cities and counties to plan and implement Transit Priority Improvements, infrastructure that increases the speed and reliability of Bay Area buses and light rail trains.

Staff from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) will provide an update on Transit 2050+’s progress and will also talk about the plan’s relationship to ongoing work expanding and accelerating transit priority projects across the region.

About SPUR

SPUR — the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association — is a nonprofit public policy organization. We bring people together from across the political spectrum to develop solutions to the big problems cities face. Based in San Francisco, San José, and Oakland, we are recognized as a leading civic planning organization and respected for our independent and holistic approach to urban issues.

About MTC

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission was created by the California Legislature in 1970 to plan, finance and coordinate the Bay Area’s transportation system. The Commission’s scope over the years has expanded to address other regional issues, including housing and development.

MTC provides planning, funding, coordination and technical assistance to the Bay Area’s 101 cities and nine counties, plus, transit agencies and other partners to bring the region together — to make life better for residents and make the Bay Area’s transportation system more resilient to future challenges.

Register for the event here.

Transform’s leader calls it “a tragic missed opportunity” and “major setback for our climate and transportation goals”; labels opponents who successfully challenged measure, “extremist anti-housing and anti-government activists”

“RM4 barely polled 54% before we even had a chance to open our mouths about it. Are 46% of the citizens of the Bay Area ‘extremist anti-housing and anti-government activists’?” – 20 Billion Reasons campaign opposition leader Gus Mattammal

By Allen D. Payton

In an email to supporters and an announcement this week, Jenn Guitart,Executive Director of Transform decried the removal of the $20 billion Bay Area housing measure from the November ballot and demonized those who successfully challenged it. According to polling commissioned by the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority which placed the measure on the ballot, they found that only 54% of likely voters supported the bond. That’s much lower than the 66.7% support of voters required for it to pass. (See related articles here and here)

Labeled “What It Means for Our Movement” Guitart’s email and identical announcement on the Transform’s website read:

On Wednesday morning, the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority (BAHFA) unanimously voted to remove Regional Measure 4 from the 2024 ballot. The measure would have raised $20 billion to alleviate the Bay Area’s housing and homelessness crisis. Unfortunately, the measure was scuttled in response to a series of eleventh-hour challenges by extremist anti-housing and anti-government activists. This is a tragic missed opportunity for voters to say yes to urgently needed affordable housing and homelessness funding.

This decision is heartbreaking for Transform and other housing advocates, and, more importantly, for the hundreds of thousands of people in our region who now must wait longer for the affordable housing and homelessness solutions Bay Area residents need and deserve.

The decision is also a major setback for our climate and transportation goals. By funding the construction of over 40,000 new affordable homes near transit, the measure would have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by over three million tons and spurred an additional five million transit trips per year.

While it is frustrating that a well-resourced group of naysayers halted progress on housing and homelessness this election, Transform and our partners will continue to build the necessary power to win big on these critical issues.

Looking Forward

All is not lost in the fight for affordable housing. Transform and our partners will be working hard to pass Prop 5 this November, which will lower the voter approval threshold for housing and public infrastructure bond measures (from a two-thirds vote) to 55%. This measure is critical to advancing future affordable housing bond measures across the state.

Beyond November, our region continues to face significant challenges, from the housing and homelessness crisis to a looming transit fiscal cliff. New regional funding measures for both transportation and affordable housing are urgently needed. Passing both measures in the coming years will take unprecedented collaboration, creativity, and courage.

Transform will play a leading role in both these efforts as we continue our work to empower communities of color, innovate solutions, and advocate for policies and funding — all with the aim of helping people thrive and averting climate disaster. And we will need supporters like you in this fight to build up the necessary resources, political will, and movement organizing to beat the anti-taxers in future election cycles.

In the meantime, get ready to vote yes on Prop 5 in November, and stay tuned for future calls to action in the fight for housing, transportation, and climate justice for our region.

Transform Executive Asked Why She Demonized Measure’s Opponents

Guitart was asked why she would demonize the opponents to the measure when it only polled at 54% support prior to it being placed on the ballot, which is much lower than the 2/3rds vote currently required and also less than the 55% threshold required for a future vote should Prop 5 pass. She was also asked if she’s claiming 46% of the public who opposed it in the poll are also “extremist anti-housing and anti-government activists” and isn’t she risking angering those who opposed the measure from the start, some of whose support will be needed for passage of a future ballot measure.

Guitart was then asked with such a low level of support, shouldn’t the measure have been revised before it was placed on the ballot in order to address some of the concerns of the opposition to ensure a better possibility of it passing.

She was also asked instead wouldn’t it be better if Transform worked with the opponents to try and find common ground or a ballot measure that will be less anathema to them for a possible future vote or to achieve her organization’s goals

Finally, Guitart was asked if she is willing to offer a public apology to the measure’s opponents, revise her public statement removing the swipes at them and tone down the divisive rhetoric.

However, in response Guitart shared that she is unable to respond right now due to a family issue but wrote, “I will pass your concerns on to our team.”

Ballot Measure Opponent Leader Responds

When asked about the swipes at the opponents made by Transform’s executive director, Gus Mattammal, the leader of the opposition campaign, 20 Billion Reasons, responded, “I have a couple of responses to that characterization:

1) 20 Billion Reasons comprised Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and Independents – the entire political spectrum. And to be clear, Democrats were about half the group.

2) Almost everyone in the group has willingly voted for tax increases before, so it’s silly to label folks as ‘anti-tax’. If someone comes to you with an idea for a pizza with pickles, sardines, and mayonnaise, and you say ‘um, no thanks!’, does that make you anti-pizza? Or are you just anti- “this particular idea for pizza”?

No one in this group is against well-constructed policies to alleviate housing unaffordability. Unfortunately, nothing about Regional Measure 4 was ‘well-constructed policy’.

3) RM4 barely polled 54% before we even had a chance to open our mouths about it, and the polling was destined to only go down from there. That means 46% of the voters were against this from the beginning. Are 46% of the citizens of the Bay Area ‘extremist anti-housing and anti-government activists’? I’m a registered Republican, and I feel like our fortunes as a party would be very different here in the Bay Area if that were true.”

About Transform

Founded in 1997 as Bay Area Transportation and Land Use Coalition (BATLUC), according to the organization’s website, Transform works “with organizations, advocates, and community members for improved transportation and housing policies and funding. Together, we can invest in climate and equity, promote innovative transportation, support transportation shifts, and address climate-related housing issues.”

The group claims to have moved “the Overton window”, which isan approach to identifying the ideas that define the spectrum of acceptability of governmental policies that says politicians can act only within the acceptable range, “steadily toward equity and climate resilience.”

They, “envision vibrant neighborhoods, transformed by excellent, sustainable mobility options and affordable housing, where those historically impacted by racist disinvestment now have power and voice.”

For more information about Transform visit www.TransFormCA.org or call (510) 740-3150.

“Demonstrates continued progress toward key plan goals” of housing, transportation, economy and environment in the nine counties including “a gradual shift away from the use of single-occupancy cars and trucks.”

Includes over $1.2 trillion to maintain existing transportation system, build and buy affordable housing, “Provide an income-based monthly payment to all Bay Area households” and to “Adapt to Sea Level Rise.”

Also working on parallel Transit 2050+ plan

Public input opportunities

By MTC & ABAG staff

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)’s and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG)’s newly released Plan Bay Area 2050+ Draft Blueprint analysis outlines how the nine-county region can advance an affordable, connected, diverse, healthy and vibrant Bay Area for all residents by the year 2050. 

The Blueprint is essentially a draft version of the plan. It is a foundational framework for a future vision of the Bay Area that includes: 

• Forecasts and Assumptions about the Bay Area’s future (population, jobs, financial needs and revenues, sea level rise, etc.);
• Strategies for public investment and policy reform; and
• Geographies where future housing and/or job growth can be focused under the plan’s Strategies.

The Blueprint is then analyzed through computer-generated models and simulations to measure how successful the strategies are in achieving shared goals for the future, such as housing affordability, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and much more.

As the first draft of the Bay Area’s next long-range plan, the Draft Blueprint demonstrates significant progress toward reaching key goals for housing affordability, post-pandemic economic recovery and environmental health and sustainability. This includes the addition of 840,000 affordable homes, with a total of nearly 1 million permanently affordable homes regionwide by 2050; a 17 percent increase in the number of lower-income households living within a half-mile of transit service; and a gradual shift away from the use of single-occupancy cars and trucks. MTC and ABAG planning staff stress that the expected progress would only come about if all the strategies to be detailed in Plan Bay Area 2050+ are implemented.

The full range of performance and equity outcomes from the Plan Bay Area 2050+ Draft Blueprint analysis may be found in the Draft Blueprint Compendium, which also demonstrates how the Bay Area can accommodate some 1.3 million additional jobs and nearly 1 million new households by the year 2050.

The Compendium shows the following proposed budget highlights for three of the Plan’s categories:

Transportation Strategies

$382 billion for T1 – Operate and Maintain the Existing System. Commit to operate and maintain the Bay Area’s roads and transit infrastructure while transitioning to zero-emission transit vehicles.

Housing Strategies

$250 billion for H2 – Preserve Existing Affordable Housing. Acquire homes currently affordable to low- and middle-income residents for preservation as permanently deed-restricted affordable housing, including opportunities for resident ownership.

$302 billion for H4 – Build Adequate Affordable Housing to Ensure Homes for All. Construct enough deed-restricted affordable homes to fill the existing gap in housing for the unhoused community and to meet the needs of low-income households.

Economic Strategies

$205 billion for EC1 – Implement a Statewide Guaranteed Income. Provide an income-based monthly payment to all Bay Area households to improve family stability, promote economic mobility and increase consumer spending.

Environment Strategies

$94 billion for EN1 – Adapt to Sea Level Rise. Adapt shoreline communities, infrastructure and ecosystems affected by sea level rise.

These outcomes were first presented at the May meeting of MTC’s Policy Advisory Council, and then at the June 14 joint meeting of the MTC Planning Committee and the ABAG Administrative Committee.  

The Draft Blueprint also identifies challenges that will have to be addressed as part of the Final Blueprint process over the coming months. More work is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to identify transportation investment priorities for the plan’s fiscally constrained transportation project list. The Draft Blueprint does not include significant transportation expansion or enhancement investments, as these will be identified through Transit 2050+ and the Final Blueprint process. 

What’s Next?

In light of the pandemic’s lasting impact to public transportation, MTC is collaborating with the region’s transit operators on Transit 2050+ , a parallel planning effort to re-envision the future of public transit in the nine-county Bay Area. Two key updates in this process will be released in July: the Draft Project Performance Assessment and the Transit 2050+ Draft Network. It will be a comprehensive overhaul of the six transit-related strategies included in Plan Bay Area 2050.

The Draft Project Performance Assessment will analyze the costs and benefits of major capacity-increasing projects being considered for inclusion in Plan Bay Area 2050+, the vast majority of which are transit projects. These investments, including those adopted in Plan Bay Area 2050, now face a significantly reduced projected revenue stream. This is due largely to slow post-pandemic transit ridership recovery and other economic changes.

The Transit 2050+ Draft Network will identify strategies and investments (capital and operating) envisioned through 2035 and over the long term through 2050. Development of the Draft Network has been guided in part by public engagement conducted in summer 2023, when nearly 3,000 Bay Area residents provided input on the future of Bay Area transit. The Draft Network also is being informed by an existing needs and gaps assessment conducted in partnership with local transit agencies, the Draft Project Performance Assessment, local priorities and improvements to transit network connectivity and customer experience.

Summer 2024 Public Engagement

Beginning in August, MTC staff will conduct a second round of public engagement for Plan Bay Area 2050+, the content of which will focus on:

• Sharing both the Draft Blueprint outcomes and the Transit 2050+ Draft Network
• Gathering feedback to inform the development of the Final Blueprint and address identified Draft Blueprint challenges
• Identifying early priorities for implementing Plan Bay Area 2050+

There will be a variety of in-person and virtual opportunities for the public to participate. Stay up-to-date on upcoming engagement activities in your community by subscribing to the Plan Bay Area 2050+ mailing list. There also will be dedicated engagement opportunities for technical partners and stakeholders, which will be publicized on the Plan Bay Area website’s Partner Engagement page.

Following an analysis of public input, the Commission and the ABAG Executive Board are expected to consider approval of the Final Blueprint in late 2024.

Allen D. Payton contributed to this report.