Analysis: Mayoral candidate Bernal’s claim of homelessness increase in Antioch verified

Screenshot of Ron Bernal campaign’s homeless text received on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo source: Bernal campaign

County reports show 74.8% increase in Households Who Lost Their Housing, 81.1% increase in homelessness in Antioch

By Allen D. Payton

In a text for his campaign for Mayor of Antioch received on Tuesday, October 22, 2024, former city manager Ron Bernal is claiming, “Antioch’s Homelessness Crisis has increased 74% in the last four years!”
The text message reads further, “This is Ron Bernal, candidate to be Antioch’s Next mayor and I have a plan to tackle this crisis!

As your next mayor, we will:

  • Expand mental health & addiction services
  • Partner with nonprofits & faith groups for real solutions
  • Build affordable, sustainable housing
    It’s time for change in Antioch!”
2022 and 2023 Contra Costa County Continuum of Care Homeless Report Housing Lost charts. Source: Contra Costa County

Antioch Households Who Lost Housing Increased 74.8% from 2022-23

To verify the accuracy of Bernal’s claims, a review of the reports by Contra Costa County Continuum of Care (CoC) and for the annual Point-In-Time homeless count was conducted. According to the 2022 CoC report 1,096 Antioch households lost their housing.

The 2023 CoC report shows 1,916 Antioch households lost their housing, a 74.8 percent increase over the previous year, supporting the first-time candidate’s claim.

2023 and 2024 charts of annual Point-In-Time Count of homeless residents. Source: Contra Costa County

Point-In-Time Counts Show 81.1% Increase in Antioch Homelessness

The County’s Point-In-Time (PIT) Count report for 2023 shows there were 334 homeless residents in Antioch compared to 228 in 2022, which was only a 40.3 percent increase. However, the 2024 PIT Count report shows there were 413 homeless residents in Antioch, a 23.7 percent increase over the previous year and an 81.1 percent increase since 2020 more than supporting Bernal’s campaign claim.

Bernal is challenging incumbent Lamar Hernandez-Thorpe who also face the third candidate in the race, Rakesh Christian who is running for the City’s top job for a second time.

The election is Tuesday, November 5th.


the attachments to this post:


2023 & 2024 PIT Count Charts


2022 & 2023 CCC CoC Homeless Report Housing Lost charts


Bernal’s homeless text 10-22-24 & Ron Bernal


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