CA State Controller responds to Legislative Analyst’s projected $68 billion budget deficit
Says state can borrow over $91 billion
By Allen D. Payton
The California Legislative Analyst’s Office issued a report on Dec. 7, 2023, that the state faces a $68 billion budget deficit for the 2024-25 Fiscal Year. Entitled, “The 2024-25 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook”, the report’s Executive Summary read as follows:
“California Faces a $68 Billion Deficit.
Largely as a result of a severe revenue decline in 2022-23, the state faces a serious budget deficit. Specifically, under the state’s current law and policy, we estimate the Legislature will need to solve a budget problem of $68 billion in the upcoming budget process.
Unprecedented Prior-Year Revenue Shortfall Creates Unique Challenges.
Typically, the budget process does not involve large changes in revenue in the prior year (in this case, 2022-23). This is because prior-year taxes usually have been filed and associated revenues collected. Due to the state conforming to federal tax filing extensions, however, the Legislature is gaining a complete picture of 2022-23 tax collections after the fiscal year has already ended. Specifically, we estimate that 2022-23 revenue will be $26 billion below budget act estimates. This creates unique and difficult challenges—including limiting the Legislature’s options for addressing the budget problem.
Legislature Has Multiple Tools Available to Address Budget Problem.
While addressing a deficit of this scope will be challenging, the Legislature has a number of options available to do so. In particular, the state has nearly $24 billion in reserves to address the budget problem. In addition, there are options to reduce spending on schools and community colleges that could address nearly $17 billion of the budget problem. Further adjustments to other areas of the budget, such as reductions to one-time spending, could address at least an additional $10 billion or so. These options and some others, like cost shifts, would allow the Legislature to solve most of the deficit largely without impacting the state’s core ongoing service level.
Legislature Will Have Fewer Options to Address Multiyear Deficits in the Coming Years.
Given the state faces a serious budget problem, using general purpose reserves this year is merited. That said, we suggest the Legislature exercise some caution when deploying tools like reserves and cost shifts. The state’s reserves are unlikely to be sufficient to cover the state’s multiyear deficits—which average $30 billion per year under our estimates. These deficits likely necessitate ongoing spending reductions, revenue increases, or both. As a result, preserving a substantial portion—potentially up to half—of reserves would provide a helpful cushion in light of the anticipated shortfalls that lie ahead.”
Controller Cohen Calls for Calm
In a press release issued Tuesday, Dec. 19, State Controller Malia M. Cohen calls for calm in the wake of recent budget deficit announcements and issued the following statement after releasing the recent Cash Report on December 8:
“Despite reports from various sources indicating a budgetary deficit of approximately $68 billion, the state’s cash position remains strong, and, absent any unforeseen circumstances, the state has sufficient cash to pay its bills and meet its financial obligations through the end of the fiscal year.”
“As chief fiscal officer, one of my duties is to track and report on the state’s actual cash balance,” she continued. “In that regard, the state currently has more than $91.4 billion in available borrowable resources, due in large part to the Governor’s and Legislature’s foresight in building prudent rainy-day reserves in the Budget Stabilization Account. While legislators will have difficult choices to make in the new year, I am confident they will be deliberate in addressing the budget challenges before them, and I urge them to protect, to the extent possible, the health and social service programs designed to benefit those who are displaced, without shelter, or otherwise economically disadvantaged.”
About Controller Cohen
As the chief fiscal officer of California, Controller Cohen is responsible for accountability and disbursement of the state’s financial resources. The Controller has independent auditing authority over government agencies that spend state funds. She is a member of numerous financing authorities, and fiscal and financial oversight entities including the Franchise Tax Board. She also serves on the boards for the nation’s two largest public pension funds. Follow the Controller on X at @CAController and on Facebook at California State Controller’s Office.
About the Legislative Analyst’s Office
The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) has provided fiscal and policy advice to the Legislature for 75 years. It is known for its fiscal and programmatic expertise and nonpartisan analyses of the state budget. The office serves as the “eyes and ears” for the Legislature to ensure that the executive branch is implementing legislative policy in a cost efficient and effective manner.
Organization
The office is overseen by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC), a 16-member bipartisan committee. Currently, the office has a staff of 43 analysts and approximately 13 support staff. The analytical staff cover several budget and policy areas: Criminal Justice, State Finance, Education (including K-12 and Higher Education), Health and Human Services, Natural Resources and Environment, General Government (including Local Government), Transportation, and Capital Outlay and Infrastructure.
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