Strong Organizing, New Registration Numbers Favor McNerney
Democrats Look to Win Battleground California
Sacramento – New registration numbers give Democrats a commanding lead in the newly-drawn ninth congressional district (CD-9), putting Jerry McNerney (D-Stockton) in a commanding position as Election Day draws near.
The new CD-9 has 132,235 registered Democrats to the Republicans’ 103,560 – a commanding ten percentage point lead, with 45% Democratic voters to 35% Republicans. Moreover, in a district that Barack Obama would have won by 58% in 2008, turnout will be key. Historically, turnout in presidential election years mirrors the voter registration of the district.
“With these strong registration numbers and California Democrats working to turn out voters, Jerry McNerney will win his election, providing a platform for Democrats to pick up other seats in California,” said California Democratic Party Chairman John Burton. “We are going to make real strides this year – people are tired of the misguided, extreme-right leadership they’ve seen for the past two years that Republicans have been in charge of the House. Strong Democratic candidates like Jerry McNerney will be leading the charge in California and we’re going to make sure Democrats turn out this election.”
Of importance is the fact that the new CD-9 has a significant amount of Decline to State (DTS) voters who historically vote for Democratic candidates. These voters – undecided or independent voters – actually vote with a loyalty to one party or the other. In Contra Costa County, these voters consistently vote Democratic 16-20% more than they do Republican. In San Joaquin County, 6-10% more of these voters are loyal to Democrats than are to Republicans.
McNerney’s old district, which he held for three cycles, actually had a Republican registration advantage just shy of one percentage point.